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Where is the District of Columbia on the map and what are the probabilities associated with it?
The District of Columbia is not on the map though it is included in the statistical and probabilistic computations. At present, the probability of Senator Obama winning the District of Columbia is 1.00. This probability has not changed since our web site went live.
How are Maine and Nebraska handled?
Maine and Nebraska split their electoral college votes (4 and 5, respectively) based on their congressional districts. However, since congressional district state polling data is unavailable, these two states are treated like every other state (i.e., all or nothing).
How can the predictions on different web sites be different?
Each web site uses their own set of algorithms and methodologies. In any close election (as this one appears to be), one site may predict Senator Obama as the winner, while another may predict Senator McCain as the winner. Since our methodology only uses state polling data and ignores popular vote polling data, it may seem that one candidate is gaining in popularity, yet their probability of winning the election does not change significantly or moves in a direction contrary to what one would expect. For our methodology, only when there are shifts in state polling data will the results change the prediction measures.
Other web sites also predict the outcome of the Presidential election:
- FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)
- 270 To Win (http://www.270towin.com/)
- Electoral-Vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)